Evaluating the Global Forecast System (GFS) for energy management over Minas Gerais State (Brazil) against in-situ observations

Several regions of Brazil have experienced periods intense drought in the last decades. Hydropower plants produce most country’s energy and a reduction reservoir flow can compromise sector. Therefore, Brazilian government has sought diversification production with other renewable sources. The introduction new sources, such as wind solar, requires detailed studies local weather conditions usually through historical data analysis. However, several areas lack stations. In this context, study aims to assess ability Global Forecast System (GFS) reanalysis product represent wind, state Minas Gerais (MG) which 79.5% associated water resources. Although considers specific region, it presents methodology that be replicated where is not available. Over areas, 10 m speed values GFS were similar those registered by Results at 100 altitude show high north state, region highest power densities are also recorded (approximately 150 W m–2 during winter spring). conclusion, product, albeit biases reported here, used scarce meteorological estimate potential for complementary source hydroelectricity.